The Horn of Africa is facing an unprecedented humanitarian crisis, entering a highly fragile stage following the failure of the Deyr season (October–December), which typically provides up to 70% of annual rainfall across large parts of Kenya, Somalia, and Ethiopia. According to recent UN estimates, approximately 50.1 million people are experiencing acute hunger — representing 22% of the global humanitarian burden — in a complex emergency driven by climate change, declining rainfall, volatile food prices, and ongoing local conflicts.

Over the past years, the region has endured the longest recorded drought in six decades, resulting in the death of 13.2 million livestock, the malnutrition of 7 million children, and the unprecedented collapse of traditional livelihoods. Current climate indicators show that the Horn of Africa is approaching a “tipping point,” where traditional emergency interventions are no longer sufficient to contain the growing pressure on agricultural and health systems.

Kenya: Twenty Counties on the Brink of Food System Collapse: Kenya has been grappling with a severe drought since late 2024 following the failure of seasonal rains, with worsening conditions across 20 out of 23 arid and semi-arid counties. Counties such as Turkana, Marsabit, Wajir, Garissa, and Mandera are recording alarming levels of malnutrition, while Northern Baringo has been classified as IPC Phase 4 (Emergency). Data shows that 742,000 children under five and 109,000 pregnant and lactating women are suffering from acute malnutrition requiring immediate therapeutic intervention. Rangelands are deteriorating rapidly, water sources are drying up, and livestock deaths are sharply increasing — further deepening the vulnerability of pastoralist and agro-pastoral communities in northern and eastern Kenya.

Somalia: Escalating Risk of Widespread Famine: Somalia’s crisis has intensified due to prolonged drought, recurrent flooding, and ongoing conflict. Today, 3.4 million people face high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 3+). Between July and September 2025, 624,000 people were classified in IPC Phase 4 (Emergency), while 2.8 million were in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis). With forecasts indicating below-average rainfall for the Deyr season, the number of people affected could rise to 4.4 million by the end of 2025 — roughly 23% of the population. Meanwhile, 1.85 million children remain at risk of acute malnutrition, while the national humanitarian response plan is funded at only 21% of required levels. The most affected areas remain Bay, Bakool, Shabelle, and Jubba, where displacement, loss of livelihoods, and limited access to services deepen humanitarian needs.

Ethiopia: Collapsing Services in Pastoral Regions: Eastern Ethiopia’s Somali Region has endured consecutive seasons of failed rainfall since 2021. The collapse of the main Gu/Genna rains in 2025 resulted in severe water shortages, deteriorating rangelands, and child wasting rates surpassing the 15% emergency threshold in several areas. Pastoralist communities are among the hardest hit as funding for health and nutrition programs declines, and families struggle to rebuild livestock herds that form the backbone of their economic and social survival.

Drought has long shaped the humanitarian landscape of the Horn of Africa, yet recent years have shown a sharper escalation. Between 2021 and 2023 alone, 23.5 million people were affected, 13.2 million livestock were lost, and child malnutrition soared to catastrophic levels. Analyses from the World Weather Attribution initiative indicate that climate change has made such droughts “up to 100 times more likely.” Despite the success of early warning systems in preventing an official famine declaration, nearly 400,000 people in Somalia faced famine-like conditions in 2023 — highlighting the profound fragility of the region’s humanitarian architecture.

Climate forecasts for late 2025 and early 2026 suggest that weak rainfall will persist through January 2026. As a result, the number of people in need of food assistance could rise to 6.5 million, including 2.5 million children at heightened risk of acute malnutrition. Humanitarian organizations warn of increasing outbreaks of diseases such as cholera and measles due to deteriorating water and sanitation services. Combined with soaring food prices, limited humanitarian funding, and weakened household purchasing power, pastoral and agricultural communities are facing long-term instability unless immediate action is taken.

Relief Center observes that the current drought crisis is not merely a climate-related event but a structural shift reshaping the humanitarian and environmental landscape of the Horn of Africa. The repeated failure of the Deyr season and the subsequent collapse of natural resources indicate that the region has entered a prolonged cycle of drought beyond the capacity of traditional emergency responses. The Center emphasizes the urgent need to transition from short-term emergency assistance to long-term resilience systems built on data, analysis, and strong local actors. Relief Center’s assessment shows an expanding gap between needs and available resources; with humanitarian plans receiving less than a quarter of required funding, millions are at risk of sliding into unprecedented levels of hunger and malnutrition. Pastoral and agricultural zones — fully dependent on seasonal rainfall — are experiencing a collapse in water sources, rising livestock mortality, and the erosion of traditional livelihoods. Relief Center stresses that enabling communities to withstand climate shocks is central to preventing a wider humanitarian disaster. This includes supporting local organizations through analytical tools, training, real-time data, and community-based early-warning systems.